Possible Effects of Climate Change on the Cocoa Producing Region of Tabasco, Mexico

Abstract

Cocoa production in Mexico places the country as one of the leading worldwide producers. The state of Tabasco has the largest cocoa cultivated field area with 40,869 ha, clustered in Chontalpa. The main objective of this study consisted of calculating agroclimatic indicators for the cocoa reproductive cycle and its alterations under RCP4.5 climate change scenarios in the 2015-2039 horizon. In the Tabasco producing region, an average of 926 photothermal units are needed for the flowering of cocoa; 1 130 units for fruiting; and in the maturity stage 1,047 units; in addition, approximately 2,760 heat units are required to complete the reproductive cycle, and at least nine months of wet period with less than two months of soil water deficit. Therefore, Tabasco’s region is an ideal location for this crop. Climate change scenarios show modifications in the current climatic conditions. Temperatures will rise 1ºC on average; however, the annual rainfall amount will decrease between 100-200 mm, as well, its inter-annual variation 4-5 months with less than 100 mm of rainfall will appear. As a result of this potential evapotranspiration between January and May will increase. The possible effects that the water deficit due to climate change can cause on cocoa’s phenological cycle can become an impediment of flowering, size pod reduction, and early ripe fruit.